家庭の光熱費価格10年予測モデル（2025-2035年）

<select id=“scenario“ name=“scenario“>
<option value=“optimistic“>エネルギー転換加速</option>
<option value=“base“>現行トレンド継続</option>
<option value=“pessimistic“>エネルギー危機継続</option>
</select>

<select id=“household-size“ name=“household_size“>
<option value=“1“>単身世帯</option>
<option value=“2“>2人世帯</option>
<option value=“3“>3人世帯</option>
<option value=“4“>4人世帯</option>
<option value=“5“>5人以上世帯</option>
</select>

<button id=“update-prediction“ class=“btn-update“>予測更新</button>
</div>

<div class=“chart-container“>
<canvas id=“price-chart“ width=“800“ height=“400“></canvas>
</div>

<div class=“prediction-summary“>
<div class=“current-price“>
<h3>現在価格</h3>
<span id=“current-value“>–</span>
</div>
<div class=“predicted-price“>
<h3>2035年予測価格</h3>
<span id=“predicted-value“>–</span>
</div>
<div class=“change-rate“>
<h3>変化率</h3>
<span id=“change-rate“>–</span>
</div>
</div>

<div class=“methodology-info“>
<h4>予測手法について</h4>
<p>本予測は過去20年間の価格データ、マクロ経済指標、政策動向、技術革新ペースを総合的に分析したモデルベース予測です。</p>

<h4>注意事項</h4>
<ul>
<li>予測結果は分析時点での情報に基づいており、将来の価格を保証するものではありません</li>
<li>地政学的リスクや自然災害等の不確実性により、実際の価格は予測と大きく異なる可能性があります</li>
<li>詳細な経済効果シミュレーションについては、<a href=“https://www.enegaeru.com“ target=“_blank“>エネがえる</a>をご活用ください</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<?php
return ob_get_clean();
}

public function get_price_prediction() {
check_ajax_referer(‘energy_prediction_nonce’, ‘nonce’);

$energy_type = sanitize_text_field($_POST[‘energy_type’]);
$scenario = sanitize_text_field($_POST[‘scenario’]);
$household_size = intval($_POST[‘household_size’]);

$prediction_data = $this->calculate_prediction($energy_type, $scenario, $household_size);

wp_send_json_success($prediction_data);
}

private function calculate_prediction($energy_type, $scenario, $household_size) {
// 予測計算ロジック
$base_year = 2025;
$prediction_years = range($base_year, 2035);
$prediction_data = array();

foreach ($prediction_years as $year) {
$year_offset = $year – $base_year;

switch ($energy_type) {
case ‘electricity’:
$base_price = 25.8; // 円/kWh
$monthly_usage = $this->get_electricity_usage($household_size);
break;
case ‘gas’:
$base_price = 155; // 円/㎥
$monthly_usage = $this->get_gas_usage($household_size);
break;
case ‘gasoline’:
$base_price = 180; // 円/L
$monthly_usage = $this->get_gasoline_usage($household_size);
break;
}

$growth_rate = $this->get_growth_rate($scenario, $energy_type);
$predicted_price = $base_price * pow(1 + $growth_rate, $year_offset);
$monthly_cost = $predicted_price * $monthly_usage;

$prediction_data[] = array(
‘year’ => $year,
‘unit_price’ => round($predicted_price, 2),
‘monthly_cost’ => round($monthly_cost, 0),
‘usage’ => $monthly_usage
);
}

return $prediction_data;
}

private function get_growth_rate($scenario, $energy_type) {
$growth_rates = array(
‘optimistic’ => array(
‘electricity’ => –0.025,
‘gas’ => –0.035,
‘gasoline’ => –0.02
),
‘base’ => array(
‘electricity’ => 0.02,
‘gas’ => 0.025,
‘gasoline’ => 0.01
),
‘pessimistic’ => array(
‘electricity’ => 0.05,
‘gas’ => 0.055,
‘gasoline’ => 0.035
)
);

return $growth_rates[$scenario][$energy_type];
}

private function get_electricity_usage($household_size) {
$usage_map = array(1 => 200, 2 => 350, 3 => 400, 4 => 450, 5 => 500);
return $usage_map[$household_size];
}

private function get_gas_usage($household_size) {
$usage_map = array(1 => 15, 2 => 30, 3 => 35, 4 => 40, 5 => 45);
return $usage_map[$household_size];
}

private function get_gasoline_usage($household_size) {
$usage_map = array(1 => 25, 2 => 40, 3 => 50, 4 => 60, 5 => 70);
return $usage_map[$household_size];
}
}

new EnergyPricePredictor();
?>

function initializeChart() {
const ctx = document.getElementById(‘price-chart’).getContext(‘2d’);

priceChart = new Chart(ctx, {
type: ‘line’,
data: {
labels: [],
datasets: [{
label: ‘予測価格’,
data: [],
borderColor: ‘#3498db’,
backgroundColor: ‘rgba(52, 152, 219, 0.1)’,
borderWidth: 3,
fill: true,
tension: 0.4
}]
},
options: {
responsive: true,
maintainAspectRatio: false,
scales: {
y: {
beginAtZero: false,
title: {
display: true,
text: ‘価格’
}
},
x: {
title: {
display: true,
text: ‘年’
}
}
},
plugins: {
title: {
display: true,
text: ‘エネルギー価格予測’,
font: {
size: 18
}
},
legend: {
display: true,
position: ‘top’
}
},
animation: {
duration: 1000,
easing: ‘easeInOutQuart’
}
}
});

updatePrediction();
}

function updatePrediction() {
const energyType = $(‘#energy-type’).val();
const scenario = $(‘#scenario’).val();
const householdSize = $(‘#household-size’).val();

$.ajax({
url: energy_ajax.ajax_url,
type: ‘POST’,
data: {
action: ‘get_price_prediction’,
energy_type: energyType,
scenario: scenario,
household_size: householdSize,
nonce: energy_ajax.nonce
},
success: function(response) {
if (response.success) {
updateChart(response.data, energyType);
updateSummary(response.data, energyType);
}
},
error: function() {
alert(‘予測データの取得に失敗しました。’);
}
});
}

function updateChart(data, energyType) {
const labels = data.map(item => item.year);
const prices = data.map(item => item.monthly_cost);

let unitLabel = ”;
switch(energyType) {
case ‘electricity’:
unitLabel = ‘月額電気代 (円)’;
break;
case ‘gas’:
unitLabel = ‘月額ガス代 (円)’;
break;
case ‘gasoline’:
unitLabel = ‘月額ガソリン代 (円)’;
break;
}

priceChart.data.labels = labels;
priceChart.data.datasets[0].data = prices;
priceChart.data.datasets[0].label = unitLabel;
priceChart.update(‘active’);
}

function updateSummary(data, energyType) {
const currentData = data[0];
const futureData = data[data.length – 1];
const changeRate = ((futureData.monthly_cost – currentData.monthly_cost) / currentData.monthly_cost * 100).toFixed(1);

let unit = ”;
switch(energyType) {
case ‘electricity’:
unit = ‘円/月’;
break;
case ‘gas’:
unit = ‘円/月’;
break;
case ‘gasoline’:
unit = ‘円/月’;
break;
}

$(‘#current-value’).text(currentData.monthly_cost.toLocaleString() + unit);
$(‘#predicted-value’).text(futureData.monthly_cost.toLocaleString() + unit);

const changeElement = $(‘#change-rate’);
changeElement.text(changeRate + ‘%’);

if (parseFloat(changeRate) > 0) {
changeElement.addClass(‘price-increase’).removeClass(‘price-decrease’);
} else {
changeElement.addClass(‘price-decrease’).removeClass(‘price-increase’);
}
}

$(‘#update-prediction’).on(‘click’, updatePrediction);
$(‘#energy-type, #scenario, #household-size’).on(‘change’, updatePrediction);

initializeChart();
});

.predictor-controls select,
.btn-update {
width: 100%;
}

.prediction-summary {
grid-template-columns: 1fr;
}
}